The Chicago Fire enter Saturday’s matchup with the New York Red Bulls on the back of a 3-1 loss to Atlanta where their stamina seemed to fade down the stretch. The Fire still haven’t won on the road since October 2019 against Orlando City. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls are looking to get their first win of the season and move out of last place in the Eastern Conference.
So, of course you could look at this game in two ways. On the positive side the Fire will be thinking that this is a perfect opportunity to break their road winless streak against a team that might be struggling for confidence right now, while on the negative side the Red Bulls will be thrilled to go for their first win of the season against the Fire who are feeling the extra pressure of ending their road struggles.
Defensive pressure
The Red Bulls are notorious for their high pressing, intense style of play and that has continued into this season even with new coach Gerhard Struber leading the team. The eagerness to win the ball high up the pitch and capitalize on transition often makes games against NEw York chaotic and high-paced.
What is interesting when looking at the advanced defensive stats is how similar the Fire is to New York. Both teams are in the top five in the league in tackles made. New York is second in pressures and the Fire are eighth. Pressures are defined by Fbref as “the number of times applying pressure to opposing player who is receiving, carrying, or releasing the ball.”
And if we look even closer at where each team is applying pressure it gets even more interesting. New York basically applies high pressure across the entire field, ranking in the top five in Defensive Third, Midfield Third, and Attacking Third pressures. So the Fire shouldn’t expect very much time and space on the ball on Saturday.
The Fire are fourth in Midfield pressures and 6th in Attacking Third pressures, but 19th in the Defensive Third. So when the Fire lose the ball high up the pitch they are pressuring right away to win it back, but if a team beats their initial pressure they drop back into more of a prevent, passive defense and drop behind the ball to stop teams from getting behind their error-prone back four. (Stats via Fbref)
The question the Fire have to answer is whether they should stick with their style of play and attempt to out-Red Bull, the Red Bulls or should they drop and play more conservatively and attempt to hit New York on the break. In what we have seen so far from Rafael Wicky it seems likely that he will stick with the plan and trust his team to play to their strengths rather than adjust too much to the opposition.
Beating the press
The Fire’s three goals this season have come by playing short combination play up the left side of the field, with Beric, Offor, Stojanovic, Medran, and even Frankowski moving to the left and central areas of the field before finding either a cross to the back post, or switching play to Sekulic who is pushing high into space on the right side of the field. Then Sekulic is able to play a first time ball into the box for a Fire player rushing into the center to provide the finish.
Look for the Fire to continue this strategy on Saturday. They will hope to attract the Red Bull press before switching play to the free player on the far side of the pitch. The challenge is not coughing up possession before hitting the crossfield pass.
Either way you look at it, Saturday’s game is one that both teams believe they can walk away from with three points.
