The first international break is already upon us. Usually this time of year is when everyone says, “It’s time for the Fire to reevaluate what has gone wrong and use the extra time on the practice field to fix their problems.” But not this year. This season it would be nice if the Fire could just keep the momentum going instead of taking a week off.
But the break is here whether we like it or not, so it’s a good time to conduct an informal evaluation of the team through four games. To do so I am going to implement a strategy used by Principals in Education, and probably by management across industries. For those unfamiliar with this delightful exercise, here is how it works.
P: stands for Praise (usually minor, inconsequential, easily observed actions)
Q: for Questions (but basically intended to be taken as suggestions)
S: for Suggestions (also to be taken as suggestions, but don’t you feel better that some of the criticisms were included in the Questions section?)
This exercise is then accepted by the person being evaluated with an eye roll and minor tweaks to appease said middle manager. (So if Ezra Hendrickson is reading this, umm, feel free to roll your eyes and continue on with the excellent work you have done so far.)
PRAISE
The Defense
I already wrote about the defense here last week, and it is even more impressive now than it was then. Despite allowing their first goal of the season against Sporting KC the Fire only allowed a 0.4 xGA (expected goals against). Their second lowest xGA of the season. I wrote about how xGA is one of the best metrics to measure if a defense is playing well or simply getting lucky by facing some poor finishing. Entering the KC match the Fire were eighth in xGA, but after that match they have moved up to second. I know it’s early and a small sample size, but that’s a good trend.
Consistency
The Fire have trotted out the same starting 11 in all of their games this season. To me this shows a team with a coaching staff who used the preseason to put a plan in place. The plan is working, and they are sticking to it. After the last few seasons of constant flux under Wicky it’s a huge positive to see the team settled, and playing with a clear identity so quickly.
Hendrickson has had a couple of tough calls to make in regards to selection, with Federico Navarro coming back healthy and looking pretty good in the limited minutes he’s played thus far. But they’re winning so you can’t really argue with the decision to stick with Mauricio Pineda, and Gastón Giménez.
The same can be said about Brian Gutierrez not replacing either Stanislav Ivanov or Fabian Herbers. Gutierrez has looked really bright when he’s come in, but it’s a long season his time will come, so it’s entirely defensible to stick with a winning formula.
Questions:
What is Plan B?
There are a few things we know about the Fire. We know that they will apply midfield pressure, tackle aggressively, and generally keep the team pretty compact without over exposing themselves to quick counterattacks if they lose possession. But there is one thing we don’t know.
How will they play when they eventually go behind in a game? The nice thing about not conceding goals is that you are always tied or winning. So how will they play when they go behind? Will they press more aggressively higher up the field? How will the back-line cope with more space to cover in behind, or if the game gets stretched can Pineda, and Giménez cover the ground necessary to control the midfield?
The only way to answer these questions is to just wait and see, but it’s something to think about going forward.
Suggestions:
Find Shaqiri (Cue Ezra rolling his eyes)
Xherdan Shaqiri has been really good for the Fire so far but he should get even better. He is fourth in MLS in Key Passes (KP) with 14. (Key passes are passes that lead directly to a shot)
Just look at the chart, those are some of the top creative players in MLS all in at least their second season in the league and he’s right up there. But he could arguably be doing even more.
American Soccer Analysis has a stat that calculates what percentage of team touches belong to any specific player. Kind of like a usage rate in basketball. Shaqiri has 10.4% of the Fire’s total touches this season. Filtered to include only the attacking positions, Shaqiri is in the top 10 for touch percentage, but trails all three players who have made more key passes than he has. There is an opportunity to get him more involved, and that would be a good thing!
Build Relationships to connect with Shaqiri
In each game there have been moments when he has clearly been frustrated with a teammate for not playing a short ball to his feet, and yeah part of that is just the best player on the team always wants the ball, but part of it is that it takes time to gel on offense and build those relationships between players so they know each other’s movements
There are signs that this is happening. Over the first four games Shaqiri has been spreading his influence into more parts of the field in each game.
His heat maps show this trend playing out. In the first two games of the season Shaqiri was taking up positions frequently on the right, and this led to some nice combinations with Ivanov, but in the next two games his touches have been much less isolated to that area of the pitch, instead his influence is growing and he is combining much more with Gimenez, Przybylko, and Herbers as well. I don’t want Shaqiri to stop combining with Ivanov, but surely it’s a good thing if your best player is more involved, across the field. It’s also harder for opposition teams to mark him out of the game.
It will be interesting to see how this continues, and what Hendrickson can come up with to get Shaqiri on the ball in dangerous positions, because good things will definitely happen when they do. The Fire have proven themselves on the defensive end, now it’s on the offense to show they can produce consistently.
How to Watch: Chicago Fire v. FC Dallas
Date: Saturday 4/2
Time: 2:30 p.m. ct
Nationally: Univision, TUDN
Stream: Twitter (English Audio)
