You’d be forgiven for not realizing that the Chicago Fire open their season this evening on the lakefront against New York City FC. The Fire had a quiet offseason, the most notable moves were the sales of Gaga Slonina and Jhon Durán, to Chelsea and Aston Villa in the English Premier League. Plus, there’s the fact that the rest of the league already celebrated their big opening weekend on Apple TV a week ago. The Fire had a bye so they missed the party, and what’s worse is that no one really seemed to notice their absence.
That’s a pretty extraordinary thing to say about a team that has one of the league’s highest paid players, and spent in the top five in player salaries in MLS a season ago. But that’s what happens when you’ve missed the playoffs in each of the past five seasons. And have been generally bad for the last decade plus. So what exactly is going on? Is there any hope they’ll eventually join the party?
Through a combination of front office incompetence and choice the Fire are mostly running back the same squad that underachieved a year ago. The notable additions so far are right-back Arnaud Soquet from Montpellier in France, 19 year-old forward Georgios Koutsias from Greece and 38 year-old longtime MLS forward Kei Kamara. The Fire are still after another forward to fill their open DP slot. (It almost seems unnecessary to write a season preview until they either sign or somehow fail to sign a DP forward)
So what’s the thinking behind putting their faith in a roster that missed the playoffs in 2022? Well, it’s definitely a risky strategy, but there is some room for improvement just based on consistency, and the development of young players. It’s a big gamble by Fire Sporting Director Georg Heitz, and if it doesn’t work out, he’ll most likely be on his way out after the season.
Making the leap
The prime candidate to “make the leap” this season is Brian Gutierréz. The 19 year-old Chicago Fire Homegrown player has the talent to be a key part of the attack, and after playing significant minutes in 2022 the Fire need him to take the next step. He has a good passing range, but at times is guilty of going for the spectacular pass too frequently.
Gutierréz had the fourth most goal involvements last season with two goals and five assists in 20 starts. But the Fire were the second lowest scoring team in MLS in 2022. So, getting more production out of their attacking players is obviously at the top of the to-do list for 2023. I expect to see Gutierrez get the start on the right side of midfield in Ezra Hendrickson’s 4-2-3-1. With Chris Mueller starting on the opposite flank.
The hope that Gutierréz will take the next step is based on the fact that he’s young, and generally looked pretty good last season. That’s not the case with the next candidate for internal development, Jairo Torres. Torres joined the Fire from Atlas in May. He struggled with a hip injury and failed to make any significant impact. So the hope is that he’ll be fully healthy, and will benefit from a full preseason, and familiarity with the league.
During preseason he’s been getting time in a deeper midfield role alongside Federico Navarro, but he’s still an option on the wing. Whether he’s able to nail down a starting position remains to be seen. He has competition from Gutierrez out wide and Gaston Gimenez at center-mid. But if he can be a solid option in both positions, there will be plenty of minutes for him to make an impact, and maybe more than that.
There are other candidates for internal development too. The Fire were a solid defensive team, and there are several players that were responsible for that. Rafael Czichos was the team’s best player a season ago, and Federico Navarro was everywhere in midfield shielding his back four. If the Fire have a good season, I expect them to get plenty of praise league wide. But the player that has the greatest potential for improvement from last year is center-back Carlos Terán. He was really good when healthy last season, and if he can somehow manage to stay healthy for the majority of 2023 he is a difference maker.
Terán ranked in the 93rd percentile for interceptions last season (per fbref), and his recovery speed allows the right back and center midfielders to play higher, and more aggressively. The Fire were at their best last season when they were compact and pinned teams into their own defensive third, and Terán’s recovery speed is a nice security blanket that lets everyone else infront of him play with a little more freedom.
Earning Their Keep
Of course there are older players that need to step up this season too. Xherdan Shaqiri was up and down in 2022, and for the money the Fire are paying they’d be justified in expecting more from him this season. I’m going to hold off writing about the striker position until they either sign or don’t sign a DP forward but obviously the Fire won’t make the playoffs if they underperform their xg by 8 goals again, and rank second-to-last in goals scored. Whoever gets minutes up front needs to put the ball in the back of the net much more consistently than a season ago.
Season previews are always filled with guesswork, but the Fire are entering this season with a unusually large amount of ifs, and maybes. It might work out, but the problem with relying on internal development is that it’s unpredictable. Projecting young players’ growth is far from an exact science. And a lot is riding on bringing in a high quality center forward…We did mention the Fire open their season later today right? Maybe someone should let Heitz know.
