Expected Losses vs Expectations

I had a busy week, and was a bit under the weather so I just figured I’d write up a few quick thoughts ahead of the Fire’s trip north of the border to take on fellow basement dweller Toronto. (edit: quick thoughts turned into 800 words…)

Was last week a good week?

The Fire played two games last week that they were expected to lose, and they actually tied one of them. So was that a good week?

At the start of the season I would have definitely penciled in a loss for the away game against NYCFC. They won the title last season and the Fire were one of the worst teams in the league. Sure, losing another game is bad. Falling to last place in the league is bad, but does losing to NYCFC 1-0 on an unlucky penalty make me think the Fire are worse than I thought before? No. 

I want to be careful here. I am not saying that the Fire have been good enough this season, or that they are likely to make the playoffs, but the New York trip showed me that this team is closer to the first five games of the season than it is to the next five games.

In fact according to fivethirtyeights projections the Fire actually improved their odds of making the playoffs after the two New York games. They went from an 18% chance to a whopping 20%, and they improved in the SPI ranking from 22nd to 19th in the league. Still, not the position in the table the Fire should be aiming for, but not DFL. 

Toronto Preview

If the Fire want to prove that they aren’t the worst team in the league then they have to get a convincing win later today against Toronto. Toronto is the second worst team in the league both according to the actual standings, and fivethirtyeight’s projections, and last week I wrote about being excited to finally see the Fire’s best XI, and we just might get to see that today (depending on Rafael Czichos’s right calf, and Jairo Torres’s left hip).

Except I can’t decide who should get the nod up top. The players behind the center forward for the Fire pretty much pick themselves. Some people might be calling for Shaqiri to play on the right wing, but as far as who should be on the field it’s pretty clear that barring injury, Hendrickson will select: Slonina, Sekulic, Omsberg, Czichos, M. Navarro, Gimenez, F. Navarro, Shaqiri, Torres, and Mueller. 

So who should get the start up front? 

Shots

It really depends on what the Fire decide they want out of their CF. If they want the center forward to get on the end of moves, and get shots away then Duran is who they should go with. In fact, getting shots off is probably his best skill. In limited minutes (only three starts) he is taking 3.33 shots per 90 minutes, compared to Przybylko’s 2.17. A fun comparison is that Erling Haaland took 3.49 shots/90 this season for Dortmund. So you heard it here first, Duran gets shots off like Erling Haaland… (all stats are per FBref)

Buildup

If Hendrickson values his CF dropping deeper, and linking play then Kacper is clearly the better option. Again using per/90 data he has almost twice as many progressive passes (passes that move the ball at least 10 yards towards the goal in the attacking 60% of the field) 1.69 to 0.91 as Duran. I probably don’t need to keep throwing Haaland in here but for consistency he has 1.70 progressive passes/90. So yeah, Kacper passes like Haaland…

Pressing

But the decider for me is who provides the most defensively, because in case you haven’t noticed that’s the priority of the 2022 Chicago Fire. Also, because the Fire have struggled to keep the ball, and create scoring chances while in possession. So I wouldn’t mind seeing them turn up the pressure a bit and create quick offensive chances by forcing turnovers higher up the field. 

This category isn’t really that close. Durán averages 21.2 pressures/90 compared to 13.6 for Przybylko. Durán has 9 tackles + interceptions to Przybylko’s 5. Four of Duráns tackles are in the attacking ⅓ of the pitch, and sure Durán can get over zealous and give away cheap fouls, but hopefully that’s something he can improve with more experience. 

Neither player is perfect, and they will both get chances throughout the season, but right now I’d give the edge to Jhon Durán. He provides a greater goal threat, and forces center backs to deal with him all game long. Przybylko is definitely better in build up, and possession, but I don’t think that’s what the Fire need most out of the position. It will be interesting to see how this battle evolves throughout the season and if either player can nail down the starting spot. 

Oh one more thing, Toronto absolutely bleeds goals. They lead the league in xg against at 29.2 over five goals more than the next worst team, San Jose. So if there was ever a game to get the offense going it’s today, anything less will definitely mean this week was a bad week.